Blog Posts

We can trace our technology investing DNA here at Cestrian Capital Research back to the Dreamtime, otherwise known as the Days Before The Internet.  The promise offered by burgeoning network technologies in the 1990s and early 2000s was one of distributed working, mobile consumption and generally being untethered from any one particular location.  Well, it might have taken two decades longer than expected, and it needed a global pandemic to fully catalyze the shift, but the distributed enterprise is finally here, and we think it's here to stay.  And the distributed enterprise is going to have to spend some more money on IT.  We expand on this below and work through which segments of the tech investing landscape can benefit as a result.

A very quick heads up.  If you're not yet a subscriber to our Cestrian Pro service, be aware that our prices rise in just a few days. 

From midnight on 1 November, a new Simplex subscription to our Pro service - which includes all our notes - rises from $9,999/yr to $15,999/yr. A new Full Duplex subscription - which adds real-time, secure Slack channel access to our most senior staff - rises from $19,999/yr to $29,999/yr.  (Monthly equivalents are also available). 

Back in early July we commenced 'Pro' service coverage of Virgin Galactic (SPCE).  We declared the stock a Buy.  We said the market had not really recognized the degree to which serious people were doing serious work at the company.  We thought the stock could outperform.  Well, so far, it has.  In a hot hot market, SPCE has outpaced the Nasdaq and the S&P alike since our Pro 'Buy' call.  We walk you through this below and we consider whether taking profits now is wise or not.

Our "Baseline Outlook" note on Maxar Technologies (MAXR) is now live.  Subscribers can view the note here.

Maxar Technologies (MAXR) is a $3.7bn EV remote sensing business, one of very few stocks offering investors pure-play exposure to the high growth space sector.  The bulk of the company's value is a result of its dominance of security-cleared Earth imaging services provided to federal government agencies.  In addition the company has civilian clients for such imaging, and builds communication satellites on a to-order basis - most recently for Intelsat.  MAXR stock suffered a brutal fall from grace through 2018, a result of leveraged overexpansion by the prior management team, compounded by a rare on-orbit failure of a Lockheed Martin-built imaging satellite.  A new CEO and team took the reins in 2019 and has put in an exceptionally strong performance in restructuring the company.  Their work is not yet complete but the worst risks are behind them and the future is bright.  The stock has yet to recover to anything like its former high.  And therein lies the opportunity.

We noted on 4 September that ManTech International (MANT) could be in play following the retirement of its founder.  The list of suitors is long, but we believe Science Applications International Corp (SAIC) ought to acquire the company.  Our latest Pro note lays out our logic and proposes a potential acquisition model.

We commence coverage of Science Applications International Corp (SAIC) in our Pro investment research service today.  The first note covers our 'Baseline Outlook' which is to say our view of the stock's prospects undisturbed by any major company-specific or market-wide events.  More below.

We'll be layering further improvements into our 'Cestrian Pro' investment research service on 1 November.  As we deliver more value over time, our prices for new members will rise commensurately.  We walk you through the changes below.  If you're not yet a Pro subscriber, sign up now to lock in the current price. You'll gain all the coming improvements but you'll avoid the new higher price.

We add coverage of Science Applications International Corp (SAIC) shortly.  This is a well-managed federal contractor serving a number of high-end space, defense and other security-controlled niches, together with a civilian line of business modernizing federal government IT systems.  The company is serially acquisitive and has proven adept at integrating targets and paying down acquisition debt promptly.   Enterprise value stands at $7.4bn and its valuation multiples are unchallenging for a long-term buyer.

Our 'initiating coverage' note on SAIC will be available to Pro subscribers next week.

From this week in our Professional service, we add short-term trading opportunities to our long-term investment ideas.  'Full Duplex' subscribers will receive background notes reviewing the trading opportunity, together with real-time alerts in advance of Cestrian staff accounts' trades in the relevant stocks.  Read on for more detail.